Two Years of War in Russia-Ukraine War: Prospect for Ukraine in the Middle of Uncertainty

Two years after the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has occupied nearly a quarter of the country’s territory. For Ukraine, the current situation may be best described by a shortage of troops and munitions, as well as doubts regarding military support from Western nations. Ukrainian soldiers are currently facing a Russian opponent who has recently seized control of the battlefield with the capture of Avdiivka, a city in the Donetsk region. 

On the other side of the conflict, Russia’s economy has deteriorated as a result of its weakened currency and increased sanctions imposed on the Kremlin. The so-called ‘Special Military Operations’ has resulted in a devastating carnage that has claimed hundreds of thousands of casualties from both sides. These enormous losses have only been able to compensate for small victories for Russia, such as the capture of the previously mentioned Avdiivka. 

As ammunition and manpower deplete, Ukraine has planned to adopt a new defensive strategy. The failure of last year’s counteroffensive plan has mainly rooted in Ukraine’s (un)coordinated assaults in multiple fronts that have resulted in slow progress, which eventually allowed Russia to fortify its front lines and hinder Ukraine from making any significant captures. 

 While the Ukrainian Army is anxiously anticipating more support from its Western allies, the Ukrainian Parliament has been given an approval to facilitate a mass-mobilisation draft bill that is intended to provide additional manpower for the military. This bill proposes to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25 and to impose harsher penalties for those who do not conscript. However, this bill has been regarded as ‘controversial’ among the Ukrainian population as morale and supply have been exhausted in the middle of uncertainty. In this difficult period, Ukrainian officials will need to navigate through this fog of war and maintain national unity.   

References: 

Chance, Matthew. “Analysis: Two Years of War Has Been a Disaster for Russia with No End in Sight.” CNN, 24 Feb. 2024, edition.cnn.com/2024/02/24/europe/ukraine-war-russia-two-years-analysis-intl/index.html.

Santora, Marc . “Ukraine’s Deepening Fog of War.” New York Times, 24 February 2024, www.nytimes.com/2024/02/24/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war.html

Waterhouse, James . “Two Years into Russia’s Invasion, Exhausted Ukrainians Refuse to Give Up.” BBC, 24 February 2024, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68384341.

Zafra, Mariano, and Jon McClure. “Mapping Ukraine’s Counteroffensive.” Reuters, 21 December 2023, www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/MAPS/klvygwawavg/#four-factors-that-stalled-ukraines-counteroffensive.

Sauvage, Grégoire. “Two Years after Russia’s Invasion, Ukraine Reorients Its Strategy to Focus on Defence.” France24, 23 February 2024, www.france24.com/en/europe/20240223-two-years-after-russia-s-invasion-ukraine-reorients-its-strategy-to-focus-on-defence